Update on how fast Openreach is deploying FTTP
The bad news Openreach has not magically managed to deploy a million more premises in the last month. The good news - well it is pretty boring actually since in the weeks since 13th October the pace is running at 18,435 premises each week.
The total as of today is 1,681,902 premises where we know that Openreach FTTP is available and our splits for Openreach FTTP and change in each category since 13th October 2019:
- 469,925 premises via BDUK/gap funded or other rural intervention (increase of 6,534)
- 829,611 premises in Fibre First areas (increase of 65,090)
- 272,987 premises via New Build since January 2016 (increase of 2,213)
- 109,379 premises via commercial/old roll-out (increase of 1,911)
The pace of 18,435 premises per week is a lot lower than the previous month which was running at 25,724 premises, but there is a simple explanation, i.e. we had pretty much finished the addition of Openreach new build premises when the last figures were published in October. If we take a longer term view over a period of 12 weeks the pace works out at 22,361 premises a week which is pretty much in line with the pace Openreach is currently declaring.
The big question is whether Openreach is on track to reach a target of 4 million premises by March 2021. Well if they maintain the 22,361 premises per week pace with 72 weeks to go they will add another 1,609,992 premises to give a total of 3,291,894 premises. So the short answer is no, the longer answer is we do expect the pace to speed up and with 72 weeks to go the pace needs to be in the range of 30,555 to 32,195 per week to hit the 4 million target. The low range figure uses the Openreach declared footprint of 1.8 million premises and the higher pace is based on the coverage we know about to date.