Broadband News

Update on how fast Openreach is deploying FTTP

The bad news Openreach has not magically managed to deploy a million more premises in the last month. The good news - well it is pretty boring actually since in the weeks since 13th October the pace is running at 18,435 premises each week.

The total as of today is 1,681,902 premises where we know that Openreach FTTP is available and our splits for Openreach FTTP and change in each category since 13th October 2019:

  • 469,925 premises via BDUK/gap funded or other rural intervention (increase of 6,534)
  • 829,611 premises in Fibre First areas (increase of 65,090)
  • 272,987 premises via New Build since January 2016 (increase of 2,213)
  • 109,379 premises via commercial/old roll-out (increase of 1,911)

The pace of 18,435 premises per week is a lot lower than the previous month which was running at 25,724 premises, but there is a simple explanation, i.e. we had pretty much finished the addition of Openreach new build premises when the last figures were published in October. If we take a longer term view over a period of 12 weeks the pace works out at 22,361 premises a week which is pretty much in line with the pace Openreach is currently declaring.

The big question is whether Openreach is on track to reach a target of 4 million premises by March 2021. Well if they maintain the 22,361 premises per week pace with 72 weeks to go they will add another 1,609,992 premises to give a total of 3,291,894 premises. So the short answer is no, the longer answer is we do expect the pace to speed up and with 72 weeks to go the pace needs to be in the range of 30,555 to 32,195 per week to hit the 4 million target. The low range figure uses the Openreach declared footprint of 1.8 million premises and the higher pace is based on the coverage we know about to date.

Comments

@thinkbroadband I have seen a lot of new fibre to the pole junction termination points recently being installed. Th… https://t.co/AkdapaOBNI

  • @whosyagamer
  • comment via twitter
  • 27 days ago

The declared footprint of 1.81m was as at Sep 30 2019. So to reach 4m by Mar 31 2021, which is 548 days or 78.3 weeks, would require 27,970 per week.

They still need to crank it up - especially given there are two winters (and Christmases) in that period, and only one summer.

  • candlerb
  • 27 days ago

31st March 2021 is 505 days or 72 weeks 1 day away

  • andrew
  • thinkbroadband staff
  • 27 days ago

Andrew, do you have any figures for the speed at which altnets are building? e.g. Gigaclear? (I'm guessing three orders of magnitude slower than BT)

  • sheephouse
  • 27 days ago

https://www.thinkbroadband.com/news/8584-october-2019-update-on-broadband-availability-across-the-uk-nations-and-regions

Openreach added 0.28 in the month to 7th Nov
The others added another 0.22 in the same time frame.

So combined almost matching Openreach

  • andrew
  • thinkbroadband staff
  • 27 days ago

The difference between Sep 30 2019 (when the 1.81m figure was for) and Mar 31 2021 is 548 days.

  • candlerb
  • 26 days ago

Makes sense now - though I do have doubts about the 1.81m being real on 30th Sept. 1.81m premises with manifolds maybe, but ready for service and released for orders to wholesalers is another matter.

They had said 1.68m back in middle of September, so a big jump in two weeks too

Either way the rates do need to increase, and the same applies to the other operators with their own various targets.

  • andrew
  • thinkbroadband staff
  • 26 days ago

If my maths is right, then at a rate of 6,534 BDUK properties per month it would take over 9 years for all sub-USO properties to get FTTP (making the invalid assumptions that only sub-USO properties were targeted, and all such are covered by BDUK schemes). FTTP isn't going to happen for the last x% is it?

  • sheephouse
  • 26 days ago

Last 10 or 20% depending on what day of the week it is in the ministry of fun is down to a project just getting underway i.e. something like £5 billion.

Question is whether there will be the people and time available to do the work, since firms will be more interested in the much bigger commercial footprints.

Some sub USO is also down to Gigaclear, but much lower volumes each month and tends to be bursty i.e. nothing then a block of 500 appears

  • andrew
  • thinkbroadband staff
  • 26 days ago

Yes, Gigaclear are bursty - there should be the Minsterworth burst in the next month or two in my Fastershire Lot2/3c. That should bring them up to about 12% of the 13,000 properties in that lot covered in the 2.5+ years since they started work. If they are to finish in 2022 as they claim, then they have to speed up by a factor of at least 5 starting NOW. It isn't going to happen.
However, as Fastershire have a contract with Gigaclear, nothing else is going to happen either.

  • sheephouse
  • 26 days ago

@Andrew
Openreach is currently claiming to cover one new premise with FTTP every 26 seconds, which equates to a little over 23,300 premises per week. Not a huge difference compared to your calculation of 22,361 per week using the 12 week average, but every little helps.

To put that into context, your suggested target rate of 32,195 premises per week equates to an additional premise every ~19 seconds (18.79 to be precise). That's a 27% improvement, so challenging but not impossible assuming more delivery resource is made available.

  • New_Londoner
  • 26 days ago

Where I live connected to the Seal Exchange in Kent the Gigaclear network is to be overbuilt by Openreach - well that is what they claim. I hope I don't count twice in the statistics.

  • Michael_Chare
  • 25 days ago

Overlaps only count once. Being doing this now for a few years :-)

  • andrew
  • thinkbroadband staff
  • 25 days ago

I may be (probably am) missing something here, but what is the estimated total number of premises to be connected - in the UK as a whole, or Britain and NI separately ? If 1,681,902 premises are now connected, how many are not ?

  • Septuagent
  • 21 days ago

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