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How close has North Lincolnshire got to its original 92.5% target?
Wednesday 17 June 2015 11:13:45 by Andrew Ferguson

North Lincolnshire has declared that it has finished the roll-out for its round one BDUK project and will shortly start to deliver cabinets as part of the superfast extension project to take superfast fibre coverage to 95% and beyond.

The project has a declared aim of making superfast broadband available to 92.5% of premises and businesses in the combined area of North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire. The original aim was 89% but some extra money in 2013 let them increase the targets.

The project is declaring some 31,000 premises have benefited from the project and as with the rest of the UK we tracking the progress independently from the projects own announcements. We leave the armchair accountants to argue over the invoicing aspects of the projects.

thinkbroadband calculation of North Lincolnshire Superfast Coverage and North East Lincolnshire Coverage- 18th June 2015
Area % fibre based % superfast (>30 Mbps) % cable % Openreach FTTP % Under 2 Mbps USC % Under 5 Mbps (new USO) % Under 15 Mbps
Combined Project Total 93.5% 89.4% 64.2% 0% 0.9% 3.4% 6.9%
North East Lincolnshire 94.8% 93.7% 88.6% 0% 0.3% 1.9% 4.2%
North Lincolnshire 92.3% 85.2% 40.1% 0% 1.5% 4.9% 9.6%

Update 18th June: The last round of upgrades in the project area and Exchange Only work have now been integrated into the table, and have improved superfast coverage by 2%. If the lower definition of 24 Mbps is used for superfast the figure is another 0.8% closer to the original projects aim.

So our data suggests at speeds of 30 Mbps or faster 89.4% (87.1% before last round of cabinet updates) of premises are covered, which is below the original target by a margin of just 3%. Given that we take a pessimistic view on VDSL2 speeds, i.e. our estimate is often at the lower end of the range Openreach suggests and thus suggests that BT has delivered what it was contracted to do.

The scale of the USC gap is pretty small in the North Lincolnshire project area, with the 0.9% translating to between 1,200 and 1,500 premises. In terms of the future with 2 Mbps becoming more outdated every day, the numbers not hitting the proposed 5 Mbps USO speed and our own 15 Mbps threshold measure may provide a clearer picture of coverage.


Posted by TheEulerID about 1 year ago
Surely the target figure for the project was the BDUK one (24mbps), and the 30mbps is a later EU target. If that's so, then surely you've moved the goalposts and claiming that it's missed its original target by 5% (using your estimations) is not accurate.

Please correct me if I'm wrong that the original project target was for 24mbps.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) about 1 year ago
N Lincolnshire had a chunk of EU money in the project so the EU figure would be the one to use. Though the project itself uses a 24 Mbps figure.

Usually the difference between 24 and 30 Mbps is usually around 1%, and combined with the odd missed cabinet so far, and a bit more streetview driving in the area, can probably get closer to their target figure.

Posted by TheEulerID about 1 year ago
I don't follow the EU money idea. Firstly, the project got state aid approval on the original definitions. Secondly, as the headline is about the original project targets, that is what ought to be referenced.

No problem with projections on 30mbps, it's just the reference to whether the project reached its original targets that I'm questioning.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) about 1 year ago
Will do some maths on both 24 and 30 Mbps and add some more figures to the article once I've finished the boring manual checks.
Posted by TheEulerID about 1 year ago
That would be excellent. I'm a bit surprised that there's normally only a 1% difference between 24mbps and 30mbps though. From at least some graphs I see that's the difference between being 800m and 1100m from the cabinet (albeit subject to all sorts of qualifiers on x-talk, cable quality etc.).
Posted by mklinger about 1 year ago
Sadly in Wootton they have missed 22 houses because they are connected to the exchange, despite the fact they could have been connected to the cabinet. They have no fix planned and neither have BT.
Posted by MCM999 about 1 year ago
@mklinger Regrettably unless coverage is 100% someone will be missing out. At least you have phase 2 to look forward. BT won't do anything commercially as the costs would far too high for just 22 lines but such a cluster is exactly the sort of group that BDUK phase 2 will be looking to remedy.
Posted by WWWombat about 1 year ago
I hate to say this, but looking back at the original articles about the 89% coverage and subsequent 92.5% coverage, it seems they might be talking about "fibre coverage" rather than "superfast coverage" ... a regular source of confusion.

Posted by WWWombat about 1 year ago
Having said that, all the current documentation focusses on 92.5% coverage being for "superfast broadband", and seems to be consistent in using that terminology.
Posted by TheEulerID about 1 year ago
It did say superfast. But at the time superfast was very clearly 24mbps as that was in the BDUK definition and I've found a couple of North Lincs documents which explicitly state that number.

In some sense it doesn't matter too much in that not many will notice the difference between 24 & 30, but it should matter as far as contractual obligations and political statements go.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) about 1 year ago
Updated figures are in place, and have stuck with my 30 Mbps definition. Dropping to 24 Mbps increases superfast figures by 0.8%.

Was a mixture of cabinets going live in the last few days, a bit of eo work and a handful of cabs that I had missed previously.

So the 89.4% (or 90.6% for 24 Mbps advocates) is pretty darn close when you consider our pessimism on the range versus speed equation for VDSL2.

Another factor is that every 6months we integrate the new postcodes which were not part of the original OMR, some will be on new cabinets and thus not part of the project.
Posted by gerarda about 1 year ago
If coverage of fibre based is 93.5% it seems very unlikely that superfast coverage is 92.5%.
Posted by ValueforMoney about 1 year ago
I have seen elsewhere that 31,000 was served by 154 street cabinets, or 201 premises per cab.
I am certain the N lincolnshire cost is less than £25k per cab, so the total cost (<£4m) is less than the public subsidy available.
Why set the target low, why not keep going?
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) about 1 year ago
How do you know the cost was less than £25k per cab?

Things like the mains connection are individual quotes per cabinet, and from street view driving Lincolnshire has more than its fair share of cabinets in no mans land between two villages.
Posted by Blackmamba about 1 year ago
Hi Broadband Watchers and babe.
In Surrey all post codes that are unable to get 15 meg down are going to be survayed for the OMR and the remaining money plus the claw back (27%) in the pot will be spent on the most cost effective locations. This should be on the table by November this may be covered by fibre or extra CAB,s plus diversions and off loads they are looking at 99.7% coverage 450k.
Posted by chefbyte about 1 year ago
Well they missed my cab off the cabs that were upgraded in the middle of Grimsby. BT have no plans to upgrade the cab so fingers crossed that the next phase picks it up. I live within 100 feet of 3 VM Cabs and 250 feet from a BT one and still on 6 MB connection.
Posted by WWWombat about 1 year ago
The data from the original launch of the project (after getting the extra funding) says the target was 31,000 using £7.3m capital investment.

The NL website itself mention "more than" £7m investment, with £5.3m coming from BDUK and ERDF, but no mention of local match funding.
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