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99% fibre based broadband availability for Malvern
Friday 08 August 2014 10:19:29 by Andrew Ferguson

Superfast Worcestershire has celebrated with 99 flake ice creams as they celebrated the opening of the fibre twin for cabinet 55 on Swinyard Road, the flake symbolic perhaps of the 99% fibre based broadband availability now across the town.

The majority of the cabinets in the town were enabled via the commercial roll-out, but the area around Swinyard Road was new build and probably did not exist during the original planning phases for the commercial roll-outs. Looking in detail at the area we believe that cabinet P50 is the only one not enabled that appears to serve an industrial estate, but the businesses may be getting FTTP.

So how does the 99% stand up to scrutiny, well pretty good actually, but the real question is how many can get superfast speeds and we have done the sums and believe a pessimistic set of figures is as follows:

  • 11% will get 60 Mbps or faster
  • 41% will get 40 Mbps or faster
  • 77% will get 30 Mbps or faster
  • 90% will get 24 Mbps or faster
  • 97% will get 5 Mbps or faster
  • 98.5% will get 2 Mbps or faster
  • ~0.5% will get under 2 Mbps from FTTC
  • Less than 1% are on exchange only lines

This spread of speeds is only for fibre to the cabinet solutions, so the availability of ADSL and ADSL2+ may actually boost the coverage slightly down at the slowest speeds, since ADSL performs better over very long lines compared to VDSL2.

Update 3pm: For anyone in Malvern area particularly on cabinet 55, the reason that the checkers are saying not available currently (8th August) is because the standard issue of line cards is already full, i.e. in the two days since going live the number of orders has been high. More line cards will be added to the cabinet in the next couple of weeks.

To give some idea of the degree of change the roll-out (both commercial and gap-funded) has brought to the area the speed estimates for ADSL2+ were: 16% > 20 Mbps, 28% > 15 Mbps, 62% at over 10 Mbps, 83% at over 5 Mbps, 90% at over 2 Mbps and 10% under 2 Mbps.

Comments

Posted by TheEulerID over 2 years ago
In calculating these percentile figures are they just based on the proportion of postal codes expected to get a given speed, or are the figures weighted by the number of premises in each postcode?
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Premises in each postcode is used.
Posted by volresource over 2 years ago
As a Malvern resident, I have noticed my ADSL2+ speed move up slightly in the last couple of weeks after stability for a couple of years. From around 3000 Kbps (per broadbandmax) to a little 4000. Are they working on getting average speeds up, or perhaps more likely that contention has gone down with high users moving to FTTC?

(Under a mile to the exchange, but speed kept down by poor cabling, poles and long way round?!)
Posted by TheEulerID over 2 years ago
That's what I expected, but worth checking as it would otherwise lead to distorted figures.

Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
On the adsl increase. Small chance wiring changes have helped you. Hard to say much without before and after stats from the modem
Posted by taylordruk over 2 years ago
Why does BT insist on not enabling cabinets that serve industrial estates?
There are a lot of businesses that still rely on ADSL, and these lines are generally very long, on average 3/4km+ in my experience.
I work in the Telecoms industry, and we resell ADSL/FTTC lines. A lot of business are starting to use VoIP and Remote Desktop at remote sites, and a blip on the DSL can down a site for 5 minutes. ADSL is too unreliable for this kind of thing. However FTTC/VDSL is pretty good for the cost, but the availability it awful.
So again, I ask you BT, why!!???
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
In the Malvern case and some other ind. estates the number of premises per cab is low, compared to residential areas so the formula means less value for money on doing small cabinets.

In the case of Malvern led to believe FTTP may be on the way to those on cabinet 50.

For private ind. estates makes sense for developer to install a Gig and sub let it these days.
Posted by gerarda over 2 years ago
Andrew

You say your estimates are pessimistic but from what I have seen where I know the actual speeds you considerably over-estimate the reach of VDSL
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Where I've checked against live cabinets our figures often come out at the bottom of the range BT Wholesale give.

If we are over stating an area, we can go back and look, but need to know the area to look at. 1.7 million postcodes is a lot of data.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Andrew - did you get the corrections to your predicted speeds for SDWSTCH I emailed?

"the range BT Wholesale give." - proving to be wildly over-optimistic for long rural lines here.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Yes, and will roll into the grids over the next few days.
Posted by TheEulerID over 2 years ago
@volresource

Distance to the exchange is not always a guide. Sometimes there is some very convoluted routing for historical reasons. I found this out on my parent's broadband which synced at about 9mbps yet the exchange was 600 metres away. On finding out their CAB is to be enabled under BDUK I went out to find it. It turned out to be 800m in the opposite direction, a legacy of when the village exchange was moved back in the 1960s. The result was a 1600m "dog leg" giving a total line length over 2km dating back abut 60 years.
Posted by fastman over 2 years ago
or the developer / managing agent can fund the cab throufh direct contract with openreach-- enable the park and then not have to worry arounf traffic management or managing the tentant connectivity as a number have done already and others are in process of doing so - see openreach FAQ Rural not in a plan
Posted by WWWombat over 2 years ago
Also check whether the local BDUK project is being financed in part by the EU ERDF fund. That particular funding element is meant to target businesses, so those counties may see more "industrial estate cabinets" getting some form of upgrade.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Andrew - "Yes, and will roll into the grids over the next few days.". YThnaks. Did you also note your ADSL predictions were way too high as well?
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Huh - wish there was an edit function here!1
Posted by gerarda over 2 years ago
I suspect Andrew's predictions are out when whatever multiplier he uses to convert straight line distances to actual line length is substantially different to the actual.
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@gerarda
More to do with the poor quality of the infrastructure on SDWSTCH
Posted by gerarda over 2 years ago
Andrews figures are way ahead of even the post code checker in lots of places round here which I doubt is anything to do with the infrastructure
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Tell us which postcodes and can spend Saturday figuring it out
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
--like I said, all the green dots! You have the postcodes, I assume.

EG You have a '??salmon'?? dot (whatever that is) at RH20 2PL right on top of a cabinet (6) which is 4km from the exchange and yellow in Nutbourne (RH20 2HE) which is another 2km from the same cabinet, and the speeds there are around 1Mbps. You show 8Mbps+ (green) all the way down Common Hill where speeds are at best 4-5.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Every green dot is wrong?
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
None of the responses I have had in that area were exceeding 8Mbps. Out of the 131 readings on the exchange I managed to get, 4.7 was the highest ADSL.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
How exactly did you derive the speeds you display?
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Broadband Watchers.
It is a pity that Andrews team did not idertify the Cab position (post code) in a different colour on the FTTC scale from this your can measure the distance.
(distance = speed= traffic lights)
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Andrew -RH202NP is right on top of cabinet8. Even BTW do not 'promise' more than 6 down.
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Jp
I just hope RH202NP post code changes colour with many others.
In Surrey 70 Cabs (sample Rural) were identified by Post Code and with there long lines to calculate the 99.7% target.
The results turned out to be aprox 99%.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
ADSL BT Wholesale range is 4.5 to 11, at over 8 we are in range for RH20 2NP

On the others just wait for the refresh cycle of the many GigaBytes of map tiles on Monday
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Where on earth do those figures come from?? Are there two sets of 'predictions'?

These are the BTW figures for RH202NP
WBC ADSL 2+ Up to 6 -- 4 to 8
WBC ADSL 2+ Annex M Up to 6 Up to 1 4 to 8
ADSL Max Up to 5 -- 3.5 to 7.5
WBC Fixed Rate 2 -- -- Available
Fixed Rate 2 -- -- Available
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Andrews staff
Well done I hope you will keep updating your maps I am trying to get the Hindhead Area correct. One more Cab went over yesterday there should be 10 working days before change this will give 75% coverage just one to go.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
AHA! I see you are using BT's figures for the actual cabinet. Since no-one actually lives IN the cabinet, how about looking at the real customers?

Is this the way all your figures are obtained?

Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Look at The Rising Sun pub in Nutbourne - rh202he - less than 1Mbps, but shown 'yellow' 2-8 on your map. Why? Yes, on Cabinet 6, and when you call up the figures for that cabinet, they are indeed 'yellow', "Up to 4 -- 2.5 to 6.5" but in the real world we live in, the pub is at least another 2km from that cabinet.

Presumably the same deceptive figures that gave "up to 4.5Mbps" for my friends who have 28-30Kbps dial-up?
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi JP
Call up the results on the post code RH202HE using a local number via ISP AA and you will see the services provided on that Cab. (RH202HE)
When the Cab is enabled the fibres will not necessarily go back to your local exchange and could be in a different market.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
@MikeJP like I said wait until the updates have been rolled in. Remember a yellow in the 2 to 8 range may mean 2.1 Mbps or may mean 7.75 Mbps.

@Blackmamba I will say again, the market of the exchange has NO BEARING ON THE SPEEDS for FTTC services
Posted by gerarda over 2 years ago
andrew see this news article http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/suffolk_political_foes_agree_on_rural_broadband_as_more_villages_set_to_be_connected_1_3370789
None of these villages should be showing any FTTC coverage and virtually no even sub 2mb ADSL yet your maps are plastered with green and yellow dots
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Maybe we need to increase the font size, but there is a message visible when you enable the FTTC layer - "Note that this does not show active cabinets but estimated speeds if FTTC were to be offered from every street cabinet."
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Haughley Green - red dots speed test 0.5 Mbps, we estimate 0 for ADSL (IP14 3RN)

Old Newton IP14 4EN again a sub 2 Mbps ADSL estimate.

Battisford IP14 2HF again below 2 Mbps ADSL
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Oh and Old Newton is has FTTC from cabinet 26 NOW.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
andrew - " Remember a yellow in the 2 to 8 range may mean 2.1 Mbps or may mean 7.75 Mbps." - but I hope you understand it cannot mean 1?

It looks to me as if a heck of a lot of your (ADSL anyway) map needs revisiting.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
As I have said mike the West Chiltington layers will get their update on Monday. Am sure you will find people that fall outside the estimate. There is a reason we call it an estimate rather than a measurement.

Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Busy Monday! The FTTC 'dots' are wrong too. Ask Chilting (RH20 2JX) about his speeds - around 5 - and a green dot (>24Mbps). RH20 2LU (also 'green' (">24Mbps)") is a not spot for FTTC!

I appreciate they are all 'estimates' but I do not see the point in 'estimating' ADSL on a cabinet performance and transposing that to premises some distance away. Where the FTTC 'estimates' come from I know not. I hope no decisions are being made on these figures.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
I have never said the ADSL estimate is based on cabinet performance. Just so happened one postcode mentioned also happens to contain a cabinet.

As I have NOW repeated several times, Chitling has had some time devoted to it specifically to nuance the figures, but you cannot see them yet.

Posted by fastman over 2 years ago
haughley green is long line of a commercial cab = sommunicy could Fibre on Demand community offered option to private fund new cab in area = chose not to and decided to wait next round of BDUK funding
Posted by gerarda over 2 years ago
@andrew all cabs have been enabled for 12 - 18 months so do not know which ones you think can reach these places. Old Newton cab seems to have very limited reach and cannot get to any where in the parish outside the main village centre, where I agree there is some superfast coverage
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@andrew
There are simply to many variables to give anything like an accurate estimate of speed for dial up, ADSL and FTTC on the West Chiltington exchange. The only accurate way the map could be plotted is by using local knowledge.
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@andrew
I should give you an example.
On your map of West Chiltington find the crossroads at the junction of East Street, Broadford Bridge Road and Church Street. There is a FTTC cabinet at this location, speeds are high, but follow East Street to the east and by the time it becomes West Chiltington Road the residents only get 1.25Mbps. They are served by a different cabinet over 2km away in Haglands Lane West Chiltington Common.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Which all comes back to the basic question - how is the roll-out to be assessed? BT's mythical 'homes passed', BTW's over-optimistic predictions, someone else's stab at things using some algorithm or other or real life fact? A lot hangs on the answer. What is wrong with speed delivered at the master socket? ISPs can see that. It should be remembered that a 'real' 24Mbps for xx%, or >2Mbps for ALL are the targets, not some fictitious guess which may be so arcane as to easily be made to produce the required answers, not, of course, that anyone would do that............
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Postcode for this spot again?
Posted by Gadget over 2 years ago
Mike - assessment of the rollout should have been detailed in the contract, along with the assessment procedures and definitions. Looking at the Isle of Wight contract these appear to have been included as part of the contract so I don't see any reason for any other BDUK contract not to contain these sections (Schedule 4.1 and Appendix1)
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@Gadget
The trouble is that public access to the wording of the contracts is blocked.
it would be very interesting to see for example if the Surrey target of 15 Mbps for 99% of postcodes is included in their contract and the target of 2 Mbps plus for the 90% on fibre is included in our contract for West Sussex residents.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Gadget - " Isle of Wight contract" - a link if possible would save a lot of searching. PM if you wish. Thanks.
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi chi
When I attended the Dorking meeting the BT representative stated to me after the meeting the .3% target would be under 15 meg down he did not state a date.
This result is measured by. ( BT/comm + SCC lines) = 450k lines.
He was taken back when I stated I had all the post codes for Surrey thus also the Cab positions. BT/Openreach contractual stages have been achieved so far.
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@Blackmamba
The thing that concerns me is that BT and SCC seem to be very proactive in actually improving their service but in West Sussex we get the attitude here is your cabinets, we have given you your 2 megs, bad luck on those who have missed out, now get on with it.
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Chi
BT/ Openreach has only to provide a service to the end of the 100 pair tie in the old Cab so to give an open market to all ISP trading on the D sides.
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@Blackmamba
I appreciate that, therefore, it is important that the BDUK project is proactive when it comes to providing a usable service. On my cabinet for example, we have a SCP cabinet just 500m from us that would be a perfect candidate for FTTRN. This would give a good fibre service to most of the residents on long lines from this cabinet, many of whom can only get ADSL, at a minimal cost.
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Chi
This SCP how many customers do you think would take up the service in next two years ( customers in contract).
The Subduct required to the fibre node distance this has to be taken in the Costings per port plus unit. Please remember the main costing is providing the Subduct and fibre and the time to do the work.
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@Blackmamba
Probably about 15 - 20 customers.
The SCP is 1.3km from the PCP and FTTC cabinets with underground ducting all the way.
Posted by fastman over 2 years ago
no scp's have been upgraded as part of commercial or BDUK. A number of communites such as Rotherick haev gap funded the copper rearrangemnt to convert SCP into a PCP and then errect Dslam . prob with that number of customer for BDUK is their will always be a pressure cost per customer for the LA to manage compared to other communities where you might get more premises for the same or less money
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi fast/chi
Thanks for your remarks I hope to see (Openreach fibre boys) on extending the fibre network very soon in your area.
Thanks Fast you may have answered the problem at Hindhead Cab 6, 12.
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@Blackmamba
Thank you.
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@fastman
Openreach seem to be using FTTRN to upgrade SCP cabinets in Amberley, West Sussex. Amberley is 4.5km away from its Bury exchange. The PCP and FTTC cabinets are 2.5km from Amberley in Houghton [a small hamlet with only about 30 properties]. Openreach have laid fibre between the cabinets and Amberley. There are SCP cabinets in Amberley, including one outside the school [clearly visable on google maps].
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Chi
We had your fibre boys from Sussex working at churt Cab 6 with only 8 hours to spare or Openreach would have not been in that phase. (Contract broken)
The Openreach fibre boys Surrey were at Rudgewick providing a Cab FTTC/P I am hoping for the long lines in Surrey who will pay for them.
I am watching exchanges along the Surrey Border.
Posted by fastman over 2 years ago
FTTRN is only 16 premises suitable would be really concerned if you were premise 17 !!
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Gadget - thanks for the link, but I have been down this road a dozen times or more. Unless you have a link to an un-redacted Service Level Agreement we are no further forward, I regret.

Isn't it odd that the SLA is ALWAYS 'redacted'?!!
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Broadband Watchers
Green mamba has reported in on Cab 10 Hindhead that yes All customers will be over 15 meg down and the the ordering is running at 13 working days.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Andrew, Sunday - "As I have NOW repeated several times, Chitling has had some time devoted to it specifically to nuance the figures, but you cannot see them yet."

We still (Tuesday) cannot see the 'nuance' on your 'Broadband Maps' so I guess 'Notspot Monday' has been deferred or have you been unable to correct it? If you need some more 'real' figures let me know.
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
The update did take place on Monday. What we have found though was a caching and colour issue which is now resolved.

To make life a little easier, we have forced the slow areas to red, rather than the red and orange mix there was before. Also the yellow to green range has been improved.




Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Andrew. Map looks much better in the HDJ area.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Well, a few fibre not/poorspots improved, Andrew, but still hopelessly wrong in some places. You should check your green (24Mbps or more) PostCodes RH20 2HB and 2HG - HG is a notspot and HB does not 'promise' more than 6 on some properties. The simple road distance says green is just NOT possible there despite what BT would have you believe.

Again - what algorithms do you use to produce these results? You would drastically improve the map with 'Black' for 0Mbps instead of hinting that FTTC is 'available' with Red!
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
RH20 2HB is NOT full green, but a yellow green as our estimate is 12 Mbps, BT Wholesale is 5.9. ADSL2+ we agree.

It is a three sided box equation to reach RH20 2HB, rather than the more standard two sided. Same for RH20 2HG.

That is why we call them estimates rather than measured speeds. If there is demand and money made available for more manual intervention and surveying then more can be done.

Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Well, that means re-writing all the fibre speed tables ANYONE has ever produced. Good news! RH20 2HB is around 2.8km from a cabinet, and you and your 3-sided box reckon 12Mbps? 5Mbps at 1.8km is the batting average here, but we mustn't let facts get in the way. Never mind 'yellow/green'?? - HB should be black. As for 'ADSL2+ we agree??? Yellow!! They are around 1.

As for "If there is demand and money made available for more manual intervention and surveying then more can be done" - meaningless, 'cos that could give them symmetrical gigabit fibre couldn't it?
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
Best thing is if people run our speed test and get the points added to the map and people can see what people get in the real world, as opposed to any of the estimate systems, be it thinkbroadband, BT Wholesale, Openreach or other mapping operations.

Spent long enough now on West Chiltington, some 1.69 million other postcodes to worry about now.
Posted by chilting over 2 years ago
@andrew
Thank you, the map for West Chiltington looks much better, especially for ADSL. Maybe a fibre notspot map would be appropriate in the next few years as the BDUK projects start to wind down.
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Chi
I think I have found a large error in the data maps.
I agree with Andrews remarks about adding information to the map so keep cool.
Regards. Phil Elisha.
Ps you can e/ mail me if you wish. Phil.elisha@btinternet.com.
Posted by mikejp over 2 years ago
Anbdrew - that should read "some 1.69 million other postcodes to get right"!

West Chiltington is 'better', Nutbourne (same exchange) is still a joke. Do you seriously expect 12Mbps at 2.8km? What is the point?
Posted by andrew (Favicon staff member) over 2 years ago
@mikejp I DO NOT expect 12 Mbps at 2.8km, but the algorithm has trouble with Nutbourne, because the road roughly heads west, then north, then east and then back south towards the starting point.

For those thinking they have found a large error then email me andrew@thinkbroadband.com

Beginning to understand why the councils are so secret with their roll-out information, since estimate == fact it seems these days.
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Andrew Staff.
Any staff on the councils must not give information because it is to commercially sensitive they do not reply to e/mails even when they know dates and positions of Cabs. I have no problems because I tell them but I still get no responce.
As I said before on your maps just mark or tag the post code where the FTTC is located then the colour distribution gives a better patten.
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Andrew Staff
See above from the above FTTC position (tag)
A. SFB-----= Green radius .7 Mile
B. FB-------=. Yellow radius 1 Mile
C. B---------=. Red. Radius. Above 1mile.
Adjust distances as required this finds faults eg alluminium game over.
Posted by Blackmamba over 2 years ago
Hi Andrew staff
Please note the above results will be on BAND A CN21.
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